CSPO - Consortium For Science, Policy & Outcomes

Plausibility Project Workshop

This bibliography presents a cursory collection of the scholarly literature relevant to plausibility. By no means is it exhaustive, but rather it begins to render the landscape of disciplinary and professional perspectives on the topic. Also see references suggested and annotated by workshop participants [here], which inspire fruitful thinking about plausibility, theoretically and methodologically.

Adam, B. and C. Groves. 2007. Future Matters: Action, Knowledge and Ethics. Leiden: Brill.
Aligica, P. D. 2005. "Scenarios and the Growth of Knowledge: Notes on the Epistemic Element in Scenario Building." Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72: 815-824. Bucharest, Romania: National School for Political Studies and Public Administration.
Amara, R. 1991. "Views on Futures Research Methodology." Futures, 23(6): 645-649.
Bauknecht, D., R. Kemp, J.- P. Voß. 2006. Reflexive Governance for Sustainable Development. United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
Benjamin, W. and J. Osborne. 2003. The Origin of German Tragic Drama. Brooklyn, NY: Verso.
Bergmann, W. 1992. "The Problem of Time in Sociology: An Overview of the Literature on the State of Theory and Research on the 'Sociology of Time', 1900-82." Time and Society, 1(1): 81-134.
Boisot, M. and I. MacMillan. 2004. "Crossing Epistemological Boundaries: Managerial and Entrepreneurial Approaches to Knowledge Management." Long Range Planning, 37: 505-524.
Boisot, M. and Y. Li. 2006. "Organizational versus Market Knowledge: From Concrete Embodiment to Abstract Representation." Journal of Bioeconomics, 8: 219-251.

Boltanski, L. and L.Thévenot. 2006. On Justification: Economies of Worth. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Bourdieu, P. and R. Nice. 1984. Distinction: A Social Critique of the Judgement of Taste. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Bradfield, R., G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, and K. van der Heijdens. 2005. "The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning." Futures, 37(8): 795-812.
Brumbaugh, R. S. 1966. "Applied Metaphysics: Truth and Passing Time." The Review of Metaphysics, 19(4): 647-666.
Collins, A. and R. Michalski. 1989. "The Logic of Plausible Reasoning: A Core Theory." Cognitive Science, 13(1): 1-49.
Crow, M. 2009. "Overcoming stone age logic." Issues in Science and Technology, 25(2): 25-26.
Curry, A. and A. Hodgson. 2008. "Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy." Journal of Futures Studies, August 2008, 13(1): 1-20
Cvetkovich, G. and R. E. Löfstedt (eds.). 1999. Social Trust and the Management of Risk. London: Earthscan Publications.
Deleuze, G. and P. Patton. 1994. Difference and Repetition. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.
Dispenza, J. 2007. Evolve Your Brain: The Science of Changing Your Mind. Deerfield Beach, FL: Health Communications, Inc.
Dupuy, J.- P. 2006. "Do We Shape Technologies, or Do They Shape Us?" Paper presented at the Stanford Center for Biomedical Ethics, May 10, 2006.
Fahey, L. and R. M. Randall (eds.). 1998. Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Funtowicz, S. and R. Strand. "Change and Commitment."
Georgaca, E. 2004. "Factualization and Plausibility in Delusional Discourse." Philosophy, Psychiatry, and Psychology, 11(1): 13-23.
Godet, M. 1997. "Manuel de Prospective Strategique." Paris: Broche.
Groves, C. Forthcoming. "The Futures of Causality: Hans Jonas and Gilles Deleuz." (a version of this paper will appear in Causality and Motivation, ed. Roberto Poli, Ontos Verlag, 2010).
Groves, C. 2009. "Future Ethics: Risk, Care and Non-Reciprocal Responsibility." Journal of Global Ethics, 5(1): 17-31.
Guimaraes Pereira, A., R. von Schomberg and S. Funtowicz. 2007. "Foresight Knowledge Assessment." Int. J. Foresight and Innovation Policy, 3(1): 53-75.
Guston, D. H. September 2009. "The Roots, Branches, and First Fruits of Anticipatory Governance." Presentation at the Symposium on Nano Ethics, University of Washington, Seattle.
Hall, S. 1997. Representation: Cultural Representations and Signifying Practices. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Huxley, A. 1958. Brave New World Revisited [1958]. Harper & Row Publishers.
Jasanoff, S. 2005. Designs on Nature: Science and Democracy in Europe and the United States. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Jauss, H. 1982. Toward an Aesthetic of Reception. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press.
Johnston, R. 2001. "Foresight: Refining the Process." International Journal of Technology Management, 21(7/8): 711-725.
Komiyama H. and K. Takeuchi. 2006. "Sustainability science: Building a new discipline." Sustainability Science, 1(1): 1-6.
Korobkin, R. 2005. "Possibility and Plausibility in Law and Economics." Florida State University Law Review, 32: 781-795.
Koselleck, R. 2002. The Practice of Conceptual History: Timing History, Spacing Concepts. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Kvond. 2009. "Omens of the Future: Intellection and Imagination." Blog post. Frames/Sing.
Lam, R. 2001. "Stories and Assessments of Plausibility." Proceedings of TARK VIII, ed. Johan van Benthem, pp. 39-49. Theoretical Aspects of Rationality and Knowledge (http://www.tark.org/).
Le Guin, U. K. 2005. "Plausibility Revisited- Wha Hoppen and What Didn’t." http://www.ursulakleguin.com
Luhmann, N. 1976. "The Future Cannot Begin: Temporal Structures in Modern Society." Social Research, 43(1): 130-152.
Marcus, G. E. (ed.). 1995. Technoscientific Imaginaries: Conversations, Profiles and Memoirs. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Mermet, L. (Ed.). 2005. "Etudier des Ecologies Futures." Bruxelles, PIE Peter Lang, EcoPolis, 5: 411.
Miles, I. 2003. "Foresight Tools: Scenario Planning." UNIDO – Technology Foresight for Practitioners Training course, 6-10 October 2003, Prague, Czech Republic.
Millett, S.M. 2009. "Should Probabilities be used with Scenarios?" Journal of Future Studies, 13(4): 61-68.
Morgan, M. G. and D. W. Keith. 2008. "Improving the Way We Think about Projecting Future Energy Use and Emissions of Carbon Dioxide." Climatic Change, 90(3): 189-215.
Morioka, T., O. Saito, and H. Yabar. 2006. "The Pathway to a Sustainable Industrial Society – Initiative of the Research Institute for Sustainability Science (RISS) at Osaka University." Sustainability Science, 1(1): 65-82.
Nordmann, A. and A. Rip 2009. "Mind the Gap Revisited." Nature Nanotechnology, 4(5): 273-274.
Nowonty, H., P. Scott, and M. Gibbons. 2001. Re-Thinking Science: Knowledge and the Public in the Age of Uncertainty. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press.
Obersteiner, M. 2001. Managing Climate Risk. International Institute for Applies Systems Analysis, Interim Report #IR-01-051.
Oxford Scenarios: Beyond the Financial Crisis: www.insis.ox.ac.uk
Oxford Futures Forum 2008: www.oxfordfuturesforum.org.uk
Pado, S., U. Pado, and K. Erk. 2007. "Flexible, Corpus-Based Modelling of Human Plausibility Judgements." Proceedings of the 2007 Joint Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Proceedings and Computational Natural Language Learning, Prague, 400-409.
Peng Y. and A. Reggia. 1986. "Plausibility of Diagnostic Hypotheses: The Nature of Simplicity." AAAI-86 Proceedings, 140-145.
Polanyi, M. 1967. "The Growth of Science in Society." Minerva, 5(4): 533-45.
Polanyi, M. 1962. "The Republic of Science: Its Political and Economic Theory." Minerva, 1(1): 54-73; reprinted in Shils, Edward, ed., 1968, Criteria for Scientific Development: Public Policy and National Goals, Cambridge: MIT Press.
Poli, R. Forthcoming. "An Introduction to the Ontology of Anticipation." Futures.
Raskin, P., F. Monks, T. Ribeiro, D. van Vuuren, and M. Zurek. 2005. "Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective." Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Scenarios Assessment, 35-44. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Ravetz, J. 1990. The Merger of Knowledge with Power: Essays in Critical Science. New York, NY: Mansell Publishing.
Rayner, K., T. Warren, B. J. Juhasz, and S. P. Liversedge. 2004. "The Effect of Plausibility on Eye Movements in Reading." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 30(6): 1290-1301.
Rescher, N. 2009. Ignorance: On the Wider Implications of Deficient Knowledge. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
Sahlins, M. 1985. Islands of History. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press, Ltd.
Sclove, R.E. 1989. "From Alchemy to Atomic War: Frederick Soddy’s ‘Technology Assessment’ of Atomic Energy, 1900-1915." Science, Technology & Human Values, 14(2): 163-194.
Selin, C. Forthcoming. "Negotiating Plausibility: Intervening in the Future of Nanotechnology." Science and Engineering Ethics.
Selin, C. 2006. "Trust and the Illusive Force of Scenarios." Futures, 38(1): 1-14.
Sharpe, B. 2007. "Time Horizons: Technology, Change and Time." Theme Paper for James Martin Institute ESRC Project on Converging Technologies.
Simon, H.A. 1968. "On Judging the Plausibility of Theories." Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science III, eds. Van Root-Selaar and Stall, 440-459. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: North-Holland Publishers.
Slovic, P. 2000. The Perception of Risk. Sterling, VA: Earthscan Publications.
Spinoza, B. D. 1884. The Chief Works of Benedict de Spinoza: De Intellectus Emendatione, Ethica, Correspondence. London, UK: George Bell.
Starbuck, W. H. 2009. "Cognitive Reactions to Rare Events: Perceptions, Uncertainty & Learning." Organization Science, 20(5): 925-937.
Suzuki, D. T. 1959. Zen and Japanese Culture. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Taylor, C. 2001. "On Social Imaginary."
Tsoukas, H. and J. Shepard. 2004. Managing the Future: Foresight in the Knowledge Economy. London, UK: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
van der Helm, Ruud. 2006. "Towards a Clarification of Probability, Possibility and Plausibility: How Semantics Could Help Futures Practice to Improve." Foresight, 8(3): 17-27.
von Schomberg, R. 2007. "From the Ethics of Technology Towards an Ethics of Knowledge Policy and Knowledge Assessment." Brussels: European Commission, Directorate General for Research.
von Schomberg, R. (ed.) 1993. "Controversies and Political Decision Making." Science, Politics and Morality: Scientific Uncertainty and Decision Making, ed. Rene von Schomberg. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
von Schomberg, R., A. Guimaraes Pereira and S. Funtowicz. 2005. "Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment." Brussels: European Commission, Directorate General for Research.
Wack, P. 1985. "Scenarios: The Gentle Art of Re-Perceiving." Harvard Business Review.
Weimer-Jehle, W. 2005. "Cross-Impact Balances: A System-Theoretical Approach to Cross-Impact Analysis." Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73: 334-361.
Werth, L., F. Strack and J. Förster. March 2002. "Certainty and Uncertainty: The Two Faces of the Hindsight Bias." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 87(2): 323–341.
Wilkinson, A. and E. Eidinow. 2008. "Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: A new scenario typology." Environmental Research Letters, 3: 1-11.

Further Reading